This report addresses currently deployed and stored arsenals of tactical nuclear weapons on the one hand, and problems related to the potential for future development of low-yield, bunker buster, earth penetration tactical nuclear weapons on the other. Each category of tactical nuclear weapons, whether old, new, or on the drawing board, presents risks to global security that have been exacerbated by the marked increase of the threat of terrorist attacks.
The report recommends that an interim goal for the Bush administration should be to cap India’s and Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programs below the deployment threshold. However, the U.S. should also seek to persuade and pressure India and Pakistan to roll back and eventually eliminate their nuclear weapons programs. Diplomatic engagement and other incentives can play a major role in convincing India and Pakistan to curb their nuclear weapons programs. However, inducements on their own will fail to influence South Asian nuclear decision makers unless they are accompanied by sanctions which constrict the flow of critical materials to South Asia.